ASG's Security Solutions Blog

Wake up time for our country and its citizens!

  

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By Jeffery Slotnick, President Setracon, Inc.

Today those of us who live in Seattle got a wakeup call. (See Terror Plot in Seattle)

Two men named Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif and Walli Mujahidh, also known as Joseph Anthony Davis and Frederick Domingue Jr., plotted an armed terrorist attack against a Federal facility housing the Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS).  This building also housed several other Federal agencies including the Seattle District Corps of Engineers office and a large day care center.

Their plan was to enter, kill the security guard on duty, roll grenades down the halls and shoot as many as they could with M4 Carbine Battle Rifles and MP5 Submachine Guns.   Their goal was to wage jihad and inspire other young Muslims radicals to do the same.  Their twisted thinking was made clear: “if a single gunman at Fort Hood could kill 13 then we could kill three times as many”.

This is not Mumbai, Iraq, Afghanistan, or a third world country, this is right here in the United States of America!  It appears that at least one of them converted to Salafi Islam while in prison and the two met up at a local Mosque.  Fortunately an informant brought forward the information to law enforcement and the plan was never able to advance to its terrible conclusion.

So that brings me to the point of this post: If you see something odd or disturbing, say something.  It does not matter if you are liberal, or conservative. What matters is that we are citizens of the United States of America.  Law Enforcement can do their part. Private Security performs their function. But what we need more than ever are citizens conscious of the threat and aware of their environments. We need feet on the ground.

The 'bad guy' can be wrong a hundred times but we citizens only get to be wrong once. The brutal reality: We are a target.

So can we learn from this: Terrorist acts are preventable!  Let’s study this most recent example in the larger context.  There is a terrorist planning cycle. It consists of seven phases. They are:

• Broad Target Selection,

• Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance,

• Specific Target Selection,

• Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning,

• Rehearsals,

• Actions on the objective, and

• Escape and Exploitation

Phase I: Broad Target Selection
This phase is the collection of information on a large number of potential targets, some of which may never be attacked, or seriously considered for attack. This phase also includes open source and general information collection. 

Some features of this type of collection are:

• Stories from newspapers, other media, and journalistic sources often provide key information on the target

• Internet research provides texts, pictures, blue prints, and video information

• Potential targets are screened based on symbolic value and their potential to generate high profile media attention. Objectives of the terrorist group influence the selection of a person or facility as a worthy target. This includes the likely casualty rate achieved by the attack.

Targets that are considered vulnerable and which would further the terrorist organization’s goals are selected for the next phase of intelligence collection.
 
Phase II: Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance
Targets showing potential vulnerabilities are given a higher priority of effort. This priority establishes the requirement to gather additional information on the targets’ patterns over time.  The type of surveillance employed depends on the target type.
 
Elements of information typically gathered include:

• Practices/Procedures/Routines: For facilities this includes scheduled deliveries, work shift changes, identification procedures and other observable routines. For individuals, it can include regularly scheduled errands (laundry pick up every third day, etc.) and appointments.

• Residence & Workplace: This category applies primarily to the physical layout and individual activities at the two places the target typically spends the most time.

• Transportation/Routes of Travel: For individuals, this is the mode of transport and common routes to any regular destination (house, work, gym, school, etc.). For facilities, it addresses ingress and egress points, types of vehicles allowed on the grounds, or availability of transportation into the target site.

• Security Measures:  This topic includes a myriad of potential collection areas, depending on the complexity of the security around the target. Presence of a guard force; the reaction time of response units; any hardening of structures, barriers, or sensors; personnel, package, and vehicle screening procedures; and the type and frequency of emergency reaction drills are examples of key collection objectives. This is one of the most important areas of information for attack site selection, since the intent is to bypass and avoid security measures, and be able to strike the target during any period.

Phase III: Specific Target Selection
Selection of a target for actual operational planning considers some of the following factors:

• Does success affect a larger audience than the immediate victim(s)?

• Will the target attract high profile media attention?

• Does success make the desired statement to the correct target audience(s)?

• Is the effect consistent with objectives of the group?

• Does the target provide an advantage to the group by demonstrating its capabilities?

• What are the costs versus benefits of conducting the operation?

A decision to proceed requires continued intelligence collection against the chosen target.  Targets not receiving immediate consideration will still be collected for future opportunities.
 
Phase IV: Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning
Members of the actual operational cells begin to appear during this phase. Either trained intelligence and surveillance personnel, or members of the cell organized to conduct the operation conduct this phase. Consequently, the level of intelligence tradecraft and operational competency correspondingly increases. This phase gathers information on the target’s current patterns over time; usually days to weeks. It allows the attack team to confirm the information gathered from previous surveillance and reconnaissance activities. The areas of concern are essentially the same as in Phase II, but with greater focus based upon the planning conducted thus far.
 
The type of surveillance employed depends on the target’s activities. The information gained is then used to:

• Conduct security studies.

• Conduct detailed preparatory operations.

• Recruit specialized operatives (if needed).

• Procure a base of operations in the target area (safe houses, caches, etc.).

• Design and test escape routes.

• Decide on type of weapon or attack.

Phase V: Rehearsals
As with conventional military operations, rehearsals are conducted to improve the odds of success, confirm planning assumptions, and develop contingencies. Terrorists also rehearse to test security reactions to particular attack profiles.
 
Typical rehearsals include:

• Deployment into target area.

• Actions on the objective.

• Escape routes.

• Equipment and weapon performance.

Tests in the target area will be conducted to confirm:

• Target information gathered to date.

• Target pattern of activities.

• Physical layout of target or operation area.

• Security force reactions (state of alert, timing, size of response, equipment, routes).

Phase VI: Actions on the Objective
Once terrorists reach this stage of their program, the odds are clearly against the target. Several different analyses conclude that once operations are initiated, the success rate for the terrorist is in the ninety-percent range. Terrorists will minimize time spent conducting the actual operation to reduce their vulnerability to discovery or countermeasures. With the exception of barricade-style hostage taking operations, terrorists plan to complete their actions before nearby security forces can react.

Terrorists conducting planned operations possess important tactical advantages. Since they are the attacker, they possess all the advantages of initiative, giving them:

• Surprise

• Choice of time, place, and conditions of attack

• Employment of diversions and secondary or follow-up attacks

• Employment of security and support positions to neutralize target reaction forces and security measures

Because of the extensive preparation through surveillance and reconnaissance, enemy security measures will be planned for and neutralized. Any countermeasure can be countered in turn.

Phase VII: Escape and Exploitation
Escape plans are usually well rehearsed and executed. Many terrorists want to survive the operation and escape. It further enhances the effect of fear and terror from a successful operation if the perpetrators get away “clean.” Exploitation is the primary objective of the operation. The operation must be properly exploited and publicized to achieve its intended effect. Media control measures, prepared statements, and a host of other preparations are made to effectively exploit a successful operation. These will be timed to take advantage of media cycles for the selected target audiences.

Citizens take note:  the first five phases of this process require the plotters to expose themselves by conducting surveillance.  Simply put, if we can detect surveillance we can stop the terrorist action from achieving phases six and seven. So how do we detect surveillance and what do you do if you spot suspicious activity?  Surveillance is something that many people describe as suspicious people.  A key point to remember is people aren’t suspicious; their behaviors are! Use indicators of suspicious behavior to identify the activities that precede a criminal act. Two factors to assess suspicious behavior demeanor:

• How the person acts and

• Conduct: What the person is doing.  

If demeanor and conduct do not seem typical for the situation, then make further observations to determine if a problem may exist.

If you note suspicious behavior, contact your local law enforcement agency or use whatever reporting protocol you have.  Law enforcement does not mind if you call.  Often times it is your tip and the information that provided by others which creates a pattern of behaviors which Law Enforcement Officials can discern and investigate.

This is the way we stop terrorism through a culture of accountability among our citizens. As well, this is also the way we stop crime!  Be aware of your surroundings, be aware of your environment, trust your 6th sense when it tells you something is not right and report it to Law Enforcement.  The signs are always there whether it was the Oklahoma bombing, Mumbai, Fort Hood, or Seattle.  Our country needs you to be aware and report if possible or the next time it could be your loved one or best friend that is the victim of self radicalized terrorism.

The next time you hear “If You See Something, Say Something” be a good citizen and take control over your environment.

Jeffrey A. Slotnick PSP, CPP is a Security Industry consultant, trainer, author, and public speaker.